Early in the lifecycle of a product category, a product ladder with many rungs is formed. Gradually, the ladder becomes a two-rung affair.
In batteries, it’s Eveready and Duracell. In rent cars, it is Hertz and Avis. In hamburgers it is McDonald’s and Burger King. In toothpaste, it’s Crest and Colgate.
The Law of Duality suggests that over the product category’s lifecycle, the lower rungs on the ladder will lose market share and disappear; the top rung will lose market share, and the No 2 rung on the product ladder will gain market share ensuring the market is a two-horse race.
Are the results preordained? Of course not. There are other laws of marketing that can also affect the results.
Furthermore, your marketing programs can strongly influence your sales, provided they are in tune with the laws of marketing. For example, instead of going out and attacking two strong leaders, what you can do is carve out a profitable niche (like Crest prevents cavities as described in No 5, The Law of Focus).
Knowing that marketing is a two-horse race in the long run can help you plan strategy in the short run.
It often happens that there is no clear-cut No 2. What happens next depends on how skillful the contenders are.
What is especially tragic from the economy’s perspective are the resources wasted in many high value product categories, however this is the cost of capitalism.
Look at the history of the automobile industry in the USA. In 1904, 195 different cars were assembled by 60 companies. Over the next 10 years, 531 companies were formed and 346 perished. By 1923, only 108 car makers remained. This number dropped to 44 by 1927. Today, Ford is on the top rung of the product ladder with General Motors and Chrysler fighting for the second rung on the ladder.
Successful marketers concentrate on the top two rungs. Jack Welch, during his reign as chairman of General Electric, said “Only businesses that are No 1 or No 2 in their markets could win in the increasingly competitive global arena. Those that could not be No 1 or 2, were fixed, closed, or sold.”
This kind of thinking has build companies like Procter & Gamble into powerhouses where it is either No 1 or No 2 in more than 80% of its product categories.
Early in a product lifecycle, the No 3 or No 4 rung on the product ladder looks attractive. Sales are increasing. New and relatively unsophisticated customers are coming into the market. These customers don’t always know which brands are the leaders so they pick ones that look interesting or attractive … hence the interest by many Internet Marketing professionals in MyStory marketing and brand You Inc. Quite often, these brands turn out to be the No 3 or No 4 rung on the product ladder.
As time goes on however these customers get educated. They want the leading brand based on the naïve assumption that the leading brand must be better.
The customer believes that marketing is a battle of products. It is this kind of thinking that keeps two brands on the top. Customers think the top two brands “must be the best because they are the brand leaders.”
As an Internet Marketing professional, you need to understand the Law of Duality. In order to compete, use brand You Inc and MyStory marketing methods and techniques to create your own product category or define a niche where you can be the leader and hold the top rung of the product category ladder (as described in No 7, the Law of the Ladder).
Many Internet Marketing entrepreneurs are using techniques and tools like mind-mapping, keyword research, Attraction Marketing Formula, Magnetic Sponsoring, and MindMeister to conduct the market research and plan a successful marketing campaign. They then use the power of MyStory marketing, brand You Inc, and hypnotic writing skills, in their marketing campaigns, to deal realistically with the position of their brand in the world that includes the Law of Duality. The goals is to not emphasize why their offering is better, feature and function-wise, over a competitor’s but to develop a message that is recognized, accepted, and agreed to so that it will seduce and persuade a customer that what is offered is real and will work for them.
Marketing is not a battle of products. It is all about the strategy you use to benefit from the Law of Duality to ensure your brand and product is one of the top two brands of the product ladder as the market becomes a two horse race.
You can find out more about Internet Marketing and home-based businesses by reading updates that will be posted at my blog over the next few weeks.
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Business Sours on China
A few years ago, I was in China on a business trip.
At the airport, as I was leaving, the departure authorities asked if I was leaving with any RMB (Chinese currency). Knowing that I was under the allowable $10,000 amount, I told him I had 3,500RMB (approx $500USD). He gasped like I was some crook. He had several others rush over. They huddled and he then told me I had to get out of line and go exchange all my RMB to USD.
I asked why (since I was under the limit)? The only answer I got was that it was illegal to carry that much RMB out of the country. I was surprised! I explained that I was returning in a few weeks and would use the RMB I had on me, at that time (saving some exchange fees) and that I had done this before. They did not care - I was told I could not leave with the RMB and needed to exchange them for USD.
A few days later, it was widely reported in the press that China was adjusting the peg of the RMB to the USD and after the adjustment, those RMBs would be worth more USDs - China was just trying to keep the more valuable stuff, ie the RMB, local and not out floating on the world wide economy.
The real target of this activity was to reduce currency speculation, where the currency would leave the country weaker than the value of the currency when it returned to the country. This is a natural reaction when a country knows it is increasing the value of its currency.
While this just may seem to be an oddity of conducting business on the global stage, it is similar to conditions that are now also occurring.
In a previous post on this blog “Is the Chinese Economy Out of Control?”, it was mentioned that due to the size of stimulus provided during the GFC, in a very short time by the Chinese government, there will likely be some serious unintended consequences.
These unintended consequences could manifest themselves in terms of foreign policy or China becoming more assertive on the global stage.
There are many recent developments within China indicating it is now asserting itself on the global stage causing global businesses to sour on China. These are examples of the unintended consequences mentioned in the previous blog post.
When China was admitted to the World Trade Organization in 2001, it affirmed its emphasis on opening its economy to foreign business however these recent developments are indicating a tilt toward promoting dominant state owned companies, again, an example of unintended consequences.
The ongoing Google incident, where Google who has had troubles with China’s censorship rules, has recently experienced intense hacking attacks against its network, providing an opportunity for a local Chinese search engine to dominate an Internet market of 400 million uses.
Another example is the bullying associated with the drummed up “spying charges” against executives (based in China) of Rio Tinto, a resource and mining company with headquarters in Australia. The charges were later reduced to bribery after China obtained significantly lower iron ore prices for long term contracts.
Coca-Cola recently had a bid, for a local Chinese juice company, not accepted by government regulators on the grounds that if the acquisition went through, consumer prices would increase and smaller companies would be crowded out of the market (even though the company that was to be combined with Coke) would hold about 20% market-share … this led to calls that the Chinese were protectionists (of their local markets) and raising trade barriers.
Technology executives are highlighting that recently issued procurement rules in China are favoring “indigenous innovation” limiting access by foreign suppliers to tens of billions of dollars of contracts for computers, telecommunications gear, and office equipment.
Foreign makers of wind turbines and solar panels say they are being shut out of big renewable-energy projects in China or being forced to license production to local companies at prices set by the government.
It is also becoming clear that China feels it has less need for foreign funds. A few days ago, China’s Premier, Wen Jiabao, told the Americans to stuff it and strongly defended what amounts to China’s policy of currency manipulation.
In what amounted to an extension of its reach in the global economy, Wen warned various world leaders that removing stimulus too early would lead to second dip in the global recession.
Wen also defended China's currency manipulation. Defying the global consensus, Wen said, "I don't think the yuan is undervalued. We oppose countries pointing fingers at each other and even forcing a country to appreciate its currency."
In a floating-exchange rate world, no one forces a currency to appreciate. If people don't want to own it for yield or sound monetary and fiscal policies, it's hard to "force" a currency to rise. You can, however, forcibly depreciate your currency by selling it and buying others. And that's exactly what China's been doing for years.
To be fair, China's currency manipulation is a form of economic stimulus. By pegging, or linking, it's currency to the U.S. Dollar, China engages in a kind of perpetual devaluation. It preserves the price competitiveness of Chinese exporters. And more importantly for China's economy, a humming export engine keeps employment high, achieving the primary goal of political stability.
But there is no doubt that China's currency policy is costing jobs in the Western world.
In the meantime, deleveraging activities of the household and the private sectors in the Western world, along with Euro weakness, are increasing the demand for the dollar. While these trends can see-saw a bit, these currencies are moving relative to one another, however relative to gold and other tangible things, all of them will lose value. The U.S. Dollar is bad. But it is less bad than the Euro at the moment.
All of this currency movement is adding to the tension between an already tense U.S. & China relationship and essentially goading the U.S. Congress to take some action.
As the banker to the U.S. (meaning the largest buyer of U.S. debt), many suggest it is best to not irritate the banker as they may stop lending money to the U.S. If China were to stop buying U.S. debt, yields on the 10 year note would take off like a rocket causing runaway inflation, and that would be bad, very bad!
I favor a quote from Steve Forbes. Forbes says that pursuing additional financial education and the resulting increase in our financial literacy (including the interaction of the currency and debt markets) will open our eyes to alternative wealth creating strategies and this will be they key to resolving our financial crisis.
To gain the necessary financial education, it is best to obtain association with, access to, and membership in a wealth creation community. As a result, you will obtain examples of alternative wealth creating strategies such as debt reduction, asset protection, and wealth acceleration with investments in items such as precious metals, water rights, oil, natural gas, potash mines, food commodities, or gold mines … perhaps investments in energy assets that are inherently useful like oil rigs, hydropower, or methanol plants … things hard to build, difficult to replace, and costly to substitute … definitely not financial stocks, definitely not retail stocks, definitely not commercial property.
I trust this article provides a little more insight into the global economy, why we have mutually dependent economies, and serious unintended consequences that are brewing as a result of TARP and Economic Stimulus. As China becomes more assertive on the global stage, they feel they have little to learn from the rich nations of the West, since they widely believe the financial crisis was caused by a blow-up of the Western World’s financial system.
It is wise to monitor world affairs and consider alternative wealth creating strategies. I will provide updates in future articles and at my blog over the next few weeks.
At the airport, as I was leaving, the departure authorities asked if I was leaving with any RMB (Chinese currency). Knowing that I was under the allowable $10,000 amount, I told him I had 3,500RMB (approx $500USD). He gasped like I was some crook. He had several others rush over. They huddled and he then told me I had to get out of line and go exchange all my RMB to USD.
I asked why (since I was under the limit)? The only answer I got was that it was illegal to carry that much RMB out of the country. I was surprised! I explained that I was returning in a few weeks and would use the RMB I had on me, at that time (saving some exchange fees) and that I had done this before. They did not care - I was told I could not leave with the RMB and needed to exchange them for USD.
A few days later, it was widely reported in the press that China was adjusting the peg of the RMB to the USD and after the adjustment, those RMBs would be worth more USDs - China was just trying to keep the more valuable stuff, ie the RMB, local and not out floating on the world wide economy.
The real target of this activity was to reduce currency speculation, where the currency would leave the country weaker than the value of the currency when it returned to the country. This is a natural reaction when a country knows it is increasing the value of its currency.
While this just may seem to be an oddity of conducting business on the global stage, it is similar to conditions that are now also occurring.
In a previous post on this blog “Is the Chinese Economy Out of Control?”, it was mentioned that due to the size of stimulus provided during the GFC, in a very short time by the Chinese government, there will likely be some serious unintended consequences.
These unintended consequences could manifest themselves in terms of foreign policy or China becoming more assertive on the global stage.
There are many recent developments within China indicating it is now asserting itself on the global stage causing global businesses to sour on China. These are examples of the unintended consequences mentioned in the previous blog post.
When China was admitted to the World Trade Organization in 2001, it affirmed its emphasis on opening its economy to foreign business however these recent developments are indicating a tilt toward promoting dominant state owned companies, again, an example of unintended consequences.
The ongoing Google incident, where Google who has had troubles with China’s censorship rules, has recently experienced intense hacking attacks against its network, providing an opportunity for a local Chinese search engine to dominate an Internet market of 400 million uses.
Another example is the bullying associated with the drummed up “spying charges” against executives (based in China) of Rio Tinto, a resource and mining company with headquarters in Australia. The charges were later reduced to bribery after China obtained significantly lower iron ore prices for long term contracts.
Coca-Cola recently had a bid, for a local Chinese juice company, not accepted by government regulators on the grounds that if the acquisition went through, consumer prices would increase and smaller companies would be crowded out of the market (even though the company that was to be combined with Coke) would hold about 20% market-share … this led to calls that the Chinese were protectionists (of their local markets) and raising trade barriers.
Technology executives are highlighting that recently issued procurement rules in China are favoring “indigenous innovation” limiting access by foreign suppliers to tens of billions of dollars of contracts for computers, telecommunications gear, and office equipment.
Foreign makers of wind turbines and solar panels say they are being shut out of big renewable-energy projects in China or being forced to license production to local companies at prices set by the government.
It is also becoming clear that China feels it has less need for foreign funds. A few days ago, China’s Premier, Wen Jiabao, told the Americans to stuff it and strongly defended what amounts to China’s policy of currency manipulation.
In what amounted to an extension of its reach in the global economy, Wen warned various world leaders that removing stimulus too early would lead to second dip in the global recession.
Wen also defended China's currency manipulation. Defying the global consensus, Wen said, "I don't think the yuan is undervalued. We oppose countries pointing fingers at each other and even forcing a country to appreciate its currency."
In a floating-exchange rate world, no one forces a currency to appreciate. If people don't want to own it for yield or sound monetary and fiscal policies, it's hard to "force" a currency to rise. You can, however, forcibly depreciate your currency by selling it and buying others. And that's exactly what China's been doing for years.
To be fair, China's currency manipulation is a form of economic stimulus. By pegging, or linking, it's currency to the U.S. Dollar, China engages in a kind of perpetual devaluation. It preserves the price competitiveness of Chinese exporters. And more importantly for China's economy, a humming export engine keeps employment high, achieving the primary goal of political stability.
But there is no doubt that China's currency policy is costing jobs in the Western world.
In the meantime, deleveraging activities of the household and the private sectors in the Western world, along with Euro weakness, are increasing the demand for the dollar. While these trends can see-saw a bit, these currencies are moving relative to one another, however relative to gold and other tangible things, all of them will lose value. The U.S. Dollar is bad. But it is less bad than the Euro at the moment.
All of this currency movement is adding to the tension between an already tense U.S. & China relationship and essentially goading the U.S. Congress to take some action.
As the banker to the U.S. (meaning the largest buyer of U.S. debt), many suggest it is best to not irritate the banker as they may stop lending money to the U.S. If China were to stop buying U.S. debt, yields on the 10 year note would take off like a rocket causing runaway inflation, and that would be bad, very bad!
I favor a quote from Steve Forbes. Forbes says that pursuing additional financial education and the resulting increase in our financial literacy (including the interaction of the currency and debt markets) will open our eyes to alternative wealth creating strategies and this will be they key to resolving our financial crisis.
To gain the necessary financial education, it is best to obtain association with, access to, and membership in a wealth creation community. As a result, you will obtain examples of alternative wealth creating strategies such as debt reduction, asset protection, and wealth acceleration with investments in items such as precious metals, water rights, oil, natural gas, potash mines, food commodities, or gold mines … perhaps investments in energy assets that are inherently useful like oil rigs, hydropower, or methanol plants … things hard to build, difficult to replace, and costly to substitute … definitely not financial stocks, definitely not retail stocks, definitely not commercial property.
I trust this article provides a little more insight into the global economy, why we have mutually dependent economies, and serious unintended consequences that are brewing as a result of TARP and Economic Stimulus. As China becomes more assertive on the global stage, they feel they have little to learn from the rich nations of the West, since they widely believe the financial crisis was caused by a blow-up of the Western World’s financial system.
It is wise to monitor world affairs and consider alternative wealth creating strategies. I will provide updates in future articles and at my blog over the next few weeks.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Is the Chinese Economy Out of Control?
Is China trying to take a shortcut to greatness? To understand what's taking place in China today, we need to rewind the clock about a decade.
At that time the Chinese government chose a policy of growth at any cost. It kept its currency, the renminbi, at artificially low levels against the dollar -- this helped already cheap Chinese-made goods become even cheaper than its competitors.
The global consumers were eager to buy them and China turned into a significant exporter to the US.
If free-market economic forces were at work, the renminbi would have appreciated and the US dollar would have declined. However, if China let its currency appreciate, its exports would have become more expensive and the demand for Chinese products would have declined; thus its economy wouldn't have grown at 10% a year.
But China isn't your long standing democracy and using the government-controlled banking system, China accumulated a couple trillion dollars of foreign reserves in US Dollars and Euros. This had unintended consequences in that it helped keep US interest rates at very low levels and lent a friendly hand in the financing of a huge consumption binge by the US consumer, which was China's largest customer.
The more China sold to the US, the more dollars it accumulated and thus the more US Treasuries it bought, driving down the interest rates in the US. The US consumer was in turn happy to leverage its future (through the "always" appreciating asset, its home) and delighted to consume cheap Chinese-made goods.
This match made in heaven between China and the US consumer worked great as long as housing prices kept rising and like an ATM, housing kept supplying dollars to its owners to spend. But all good things come to an end and great things come to an end with a bang.
Let’s now fast-forward a year. Today the global economy is stabilizing but the US consumers of Chinese-made goods are now deleveraging, unemployment is high, and US banks aren't lending.
Despite this, the Chinese export-based economy has reported a growth rate of 8.7% in 2009. The rest of the world looks at the Chinese growth miracle with envy as it seems that China has figured out economics of the next business cycle. But don't hurry to trade your democracy for an authoritarian system. The Chinese grass is not as green as it appears.
First, one should always be skeptical of economic numbers that are put out by any Government, yet alone the Chinese government. The high growth rate of last year in China occurred when its exports were down more than 25%, tonnage of goods shipped through its railroads was down by double digits, and its electricity consumption fell like a rock.
Second, China will do anything to grow its economy, as the alternatives will lead to political unrest. A lot of peasants moved to the cities in search of higher-paying jobs during the go-go times. Because China lacks the social safety-net of the developed world, unemployed people aren't just inconvenienced by the loss of their jobs, they starve (and this helps explains the high savings rate in China) and hungry people don't complain, they riot! Once you look at what's taking place in the Chinese economy through this lens, then the decisions of its leaders start making sense, or at least become understandable.
Unlike Western democracies, where central banks can pump a lot of money into the financial system but can't force banks to lend or consumers and corporations to spend, China can do both very fast. The Chinese government controls the banks. Thus it can make them lend and it can force state-owned enterprises (one-third of the economy) to borrow and to spend. Also, China can spend infrastructure project money very fast -- if a school is in the way of a road the government wants to build, it becomes a casualty for the greater good without a lot of delay due to environmental or society related concerns.
China has spent a tremendous amount of money on infrastructure over the last decade and there are definitely long-term benefits to having better highways, fast railroads, and more hospitals. But any government is horrible at allocating large amounts of capital. Political decisions (driven by the goal of full or near full employment) are often uneconomical and full of corruption and cronyism that result in projects that destroy value.
Infrastructure and real estate projects are where you get your biggest bang for the buck if your goal is to maintain employment, because they require a lot of unskilled labor. This is where in the past a lot of Chinese money was spent. This also explains why the Chinese keep building skyscrapers even though the adjacent ones are still vacant.
In addition, China has built the largest shopping mall in the world, the South China Mall, which is still 99% vacant years after construction. China also built a whole city, Ordos, in Inner Mongolia, on spec for one million residents who never appeared. China is a less shiny but more drastic version of Dubai.
We look at China and are mesmerized by its 1.3 billion people representing huge target markets. There is speculation that the Chinese consumer will pick up the demand slack for the US and European consumers who are deleveraging and buying fewer Chinese-made goods. This may happen but it will take decades. The US and European consumers are two-thirds of much larger economies. The Chinese consumer is only one-third of the Chinese economy.
We have to remember that economic bubbles are usually just a good thing taken too far. This was the case with railroads in the US in the late 19th century. The railroads were supposed to change the landscape of the US, and they did, but that didn't prevent a lot of them from going out of business first. The Internet was supposed to change how we communicate, and it did, but in the process it generated a tremendous bubble, followed by the loss of wealth for many.
The Chinese economy is no exception. Its long-term future may be bright but in the short run we've got a bubble on our hands. The temporary mirage of economic resiliency must be followed by huge pain and drastic consequences because every cycle has an up and a down. This is a law of nature and the laws of economics do not work differently.
I favor a quote from Steve Forbes. Forbes says that pursuing additional financial education and the resulting increase in our financial literacy (including the interaction of the currency and debt markets) will open our eyes to alternative wealth creating strategies and this will be they key to resolving our financial crisis.
As an example of alternative wealth creating strategies … consider investments in precious metals, water rights, oil, natural gas, potash mines, food commodities, or gold mines … perhaps investments in energy assets that are inherently useful like oil rigs, hydropower, or methanol plants … things hard to build, difficult to replace, and costly to substitute … definitely not financial stocks, definitely not retail stocks, definitely not commercial property.
I trust this article provides a little more insight into the global economy and the mutually dependent economies. Due to the size of the stimulus provided in a very short time, by the Chinese government, there will likely be some serious unintended consequences that will manifest themselves, also on the world stage. These consequences could express themselves in terms of foreign policy, such as dangerous undercurrents to Taiwan’s peaceful reunification, or in terms of China becoming more assertive on the global stage because they feel they have little to learn from the rich nations of the West, since they widely believe the financial crisis was caused by a blow-up of the Western World’s financial system.
It is wise to monitor world affairs and consider alternative wealth creating strategies. I will provide updates in future articles and at my blog over the next few weeks.
At that time the Chinese government chose a policy of growth at any cost. It kept its currency, the renminbi, at artificially low levels against the dollar -- this helped already cheap Chinese-made goods become even cheaper than its competitors.
The global consumers were eager to buy them and China turned into a significant exporter to the US.
If free-market economic forces were at work, the renminbi would have appreciated and the US dollar would have declined. However, if China let its currency appreciate, its exports would have become more expensive and the demand for Chinese products would have declined; thus its economy wouldn't have grown at 10% a year.
But China isn't your long standing democracy and using the government-controlled banking system, China accumulated a couple trillion dollars of foreign reserves in US Dollars and Euros. This had unintended consequences in that it helped keep US interest rates at very low levels and lent a friendly hand in the financing of a huge consumption binge by the US consumer, which was China's largest customer.
The more China sold to the US, the more dollars it accumulated and thus the more US Treasuries it bought, driving down the interest rates in the US. The US consumer was in turn happy to leverage its future (through the "always" appreciating asset, its home) and delighted to consume cheap Chinese-made goods.
This match made in heaven between China and the US consumer worked great as long as housing prices kept rising and like an ATM, housing kept supplying dollars to its owners to spend. But all good things come to an end and great things come to an end with a bang.
Let’s now fast-forward a year. Today the global economy is stabilizing but the US consumers of Chinese-made goods are now deleveraging, unemployment is high, and US banks aren't lending.
Despite this, the Chinese export-based economy has reported a growth rate of 8.7% in 2009. The rest of the world looks at the Chinese growth miracle with envy as it seems that China has figured out economics of the next business cycle. But don't hurry to trade your democracy for an authoritarian system. The Chinese grass is not as green as it appears.
First, one should always be skeptical of economic numbers that are put out by any Government, yet alone the Chinese government. The high growth rate of last year in China occurred when its exports were down more than 25%, tonnage of goods shipped through its railroads was down by double digits, and its electricity consumption fell like a rock.
Second, China will do anything to grow its economy, as the alternatives will lead to political unrest. A lot of peasants moved to the cities in search of higher-paying jobs during the go-go times. Because China lacks the social safety-net of the developed world, unemployed people aren't just inconvenienced by the loss of their jobs, they starve (and this helps explains the high savings rate in China) and hungry people don't complain, they riot! Once you look at what's taking place in the Chinese economy through this lens, then the decisions of its leaders start making sense, or at least become understandable.
Unlike Western democracies, where central banks can pump a lot of money into the financial system but can't force banks to lend or consumers and corporations to spend, China can do both very fast. The Chinese government controls the banks. Thus it can make them lend and it can force state-owned enterprises (one-third of the economy) to borrow and to spend. Also, China can spend infrastructure project money very fast -- if a school is in the way of a road the government wants to build, it becomes a casualty for the greater good without a lot of delay due to environmental or society related concerns.
China has spent a tremendous amount of money on infrastructure over the last decade and there are definitely long-term benefits to having better highways, fast railroads, and more hospitals. But any government is horrible at allocating large amounts of capital. Political decisions (driven by the goal of full or near full employment) are often uneconomical and full of corruption and cronyism that result in projects that destroy value.
Infrastructure and real estate projects are where you get your biggest bang for the buck if your goal is to maintain employment, because they require a lot of unskilled labor. This is where in the past a lot of Chinese money was spent. This also explains why the Chinese keep building skyscrapers even though the adjacent ones are still vacant.
In addition, China has built the largest shopping mall in the world, the South China Mall, which is still 99% vacant years after construction. China also built a whole city, Ordos, in Inner Mongolia, on spec for one million residents who never appeared. China is a less shiny but more drastic version of Dubai.
We look at China and are mesmerized by its 1.3 billion people representing huge target markets. There is speculation that the Chinese consumer will pick up the demand slack for the US and European consumers who are deleveraging and buying fewer Chinese-made goods. This may happen but it will take decades. The US and European consumers are two-thirds of much larger economies. The Chinese consumer is only one-third of the Chinese economy.
We have to remember that economic bubbles are usually just a good thing taken too far. This was the case with railroads in the US in the late 19th century. The railroads were supposed to change the landscape of the US, and they did, but that didn't prevent a lot of them from going out of business first. The Internet was supposed to change how we communicate, and it did, but in the process it generated a tremendous bubble, followed by the loss of wealth for many.
The Chinese economy is no exception. Its long-term future may be bright but in the short run we've got a bubble on our hands. The temporary mirage of economic resiliency must be followed by huge pain and drastic consequences because every cycle has an up and a down. This is a law of nature and the laws of economics do not work differently.
I favor a quote from Steve Forbes. Forbes says that pursuing additional financial education and the resulting increase in our financial literacy (including the interaction of the currency and debt markets) will open our eyes to alternative wealth creating strategies and this will be they key to resolving our financial crisis.
As an example of alternative wealth creating strategies … consider investments in precious metals, water rights, oil, natural gas, potash mines, food commodities, or gold mines … perhaps investments in energy assets that are inherently useful like oil rigs, hydropower, or methanol plants … things hard to build, difficult to replace, and costly to substitute … definitely not financial stocks, definitely not retail stocks, definitely not commercial property.
I trust this article provides a little more insight into the global economy and the mutually dependent economies. Due to the size of the stimulus provided in a very short time, by the Chinese government, there will likely be some serious unintended consequences that will manifest themselves, also on the world stage. These consequences could express themselves in terms of foreign policy, such as dangerous undercurrents to Taiwan’s peaceful reunification, or in terms of China becoming more assertive on the global stage because they feel they have little to learn from the rich nations of the West, since they widely believe the financial crisis was caused by a blow-up of the Western World’s financial system.
It is wise to monitor world affairs and consider alternative wealth creating strategies. I will provide updates in future articles and at my blog over the next few weeks.
Thursday, March 4, 2010
In 2010, Demand for Commodities is Creating Investment Opportunities
Emerging markets kicked into high gear a few years ago (see previous post on this blog titled “The World’s Center of Gravity is Continuing to Tip in Favor of Emerging Markets”) and this was fully evident in the middle of 2008 as many commodity prices reached all-time highs.
As global demand increased, the prices for commodities like oil, corn, sugar and cotton rose to dizzying heights.
The market cooled off in late 2008 and early 2009 as part of the deleveraging initiated in Phase 1 of the Global Financial Crisis but now commodities are beginning to move back up.
Many commodities have achieved a 50% retracement back up to 2008 highs and this upward movement signals to many a continuing uptrend.
After worldwide demand destruction in late 2008 it appears a solid uptrend is being formed.
This uptrend is a combination of fundamental factors with the most important driver coming from markets like China and India.
These emerging markets consume everything from oil to orange juice, and after the sudden fall of 2008, the craving for so-called luxury goods, from the people of these emerging markets, has just started.
Worldwide demand for these staple commodities (fuel for a car, coffee is a new delicacy, and corn-fed meats on the dinner plate) will continue to rise.
After you get past all the investment bank upgrade and market consensus reports, there are plenty of solid reasons that gold is set to rise in the next 12 months.
From a technical perspective, gold has not reached its inflation-adjusted all-time high. For that to happen, gold would need to be at $2,000 an ounce — a 75% increase from today’s price.
In 2010, this could easily happen. However, a more conservative, yet realistic goal would be $1,500 gold — which could very easily happen in the next 12 months.
Other than technical indicators and charts, there are plenty of fundamental reasons to assume the metal will go higher and two of the most significant reasons are listed below.
First and most importantly is that there is an implicit flaw with Western government funding models. Governments like ours here in the U.S., naturally choose short-term fixes for long-term problems (it probably has to do with the lack of term limits for politicians and frequent re-elections). Most likely these features of our government and political system will not magically change overnight, nor will it likely change by the end of 2010.
So the probabilities are high that fears of inflation will remain large and as a hedge, many will demand gold, hence increasing gold prices. And, as the short-term fixes expose more government-monetized debt, prices of the precious metal will also go higher.
The second reason that gold will shoot to $1,500 in the next 12 months is supply related. Many of the gold fields in South Africa are finding it more difficult and hence more expensive to mine the gold that is deep in the earth. With gold being harder to obtain, the price will be higher due to increased mining costs and inevitably, there will be less supply of gold brought to market due to these expensive mining methods and ongoing difficulty in the mining process.
As demand rises and supply is reduced, you can bet that prices for gold will have nowhere to go but higher than the current $1,100 an ounce.
I favor a quote from Steve Forbes. Forbes says that pursuing additional financial education and the resulting increase in our financial literacy will open our eyes to alternative wealth creating strategies and this will be they key to resolving our financial crisis.
As an example of alternative wealth creating strategies … consider investments in precious metals, water rights, oil, natural gas, potash mines, food commodities, or gold mines … perhaps investments in energy assets that are inherently useful like oil rigs, hydropower, or methanol plants … things hard to build, difficult to replace, and costly to substitute … definitely not financial stocks, definitely not retail stocks, definitely not commercial property.
I trust this article provides a little more insight into the world of the commodity markets and with the raging demand due to the rise in the living standards in many of the world’s emerging markets, there are numerous alternative wealth generating opportunities. This increased demand places commodities in a super-cycle that will likely last another decade. In the commodities world, there are no CEOs on the inside cooking the books nor do you have accounting firms puffing up the profits - you just have prices responding to pure supply and demand. This is why many refer to the commodities markets as the last bastion where there is pure capitalism. It is wise to have exposure to the commodities markets as the world’s economies respond to the emerging markets.
I will continue to introduce alternative wealth creating strategies to consider in future articles and updates at my blog over the next few weeks.
As global demand increased, the prices for commodities like oil, corn, sugar and cotton rose to dizzying heights.
The market cooled off in late 2008 and early 2009 as part of the deleveraging initiated in Phase 1 of the Global Financial Crisis but now commodities are beginning to move back up.
Many commodities have achieved a 50% retracement back up to 2008 highs and this upward movement signals to many a continuing uptrend.
After worldwide demand destruction in late 2008 it appears a solid uptrend is being formed.
This uptrend is a combination of fundamental factors with the most important driver coming from markets like China and India.
These emerging markets consume everything from oil to orange juice, and after the sudden fall of 2008, the craving for so-called luxury goods, from the people of these emerging markets, has just started.
Worldwide demand for these staple commodities (fuel for a car, coffee is a new delicacy, and corn-fed meats on the dinner plate) will continue to rise.
After you get past all the investment bank upgrade and market consensus reports, there are plenty of solid reasons that gold is set to rise in the next 12 months.
From a technical perspective, gold has not reached its inflation-adjusted all-time high. For that to happen, gold would need to be at $2,000 an ounce — a 75% increase from today’s price.
In 2010, this could easily happen. However, a more conservative, yet realistic goal would be $1,500 gold — which could very easily happen in the next 12 months.
Other than technical indicators and charts, there are plenty of fundamental reasons to assume the metal will go higher and two of the most significant reasons are listed below.
First and most importantly is that there is an implicit flaw with Western government funding models. Governments like ours here in the U.S., naturally choose short-term fixes for long-term problems (it probably has to do with the lack of term limits for politicians and frequent re-elections). Most likely these features of our government and political system will not magically change overnight, nor will it likely change by the end of 2010.
So the probabilities are high that fears of inflation will remain large and as a hedge, many will demand gold, hence increasing gold prices. And, as the short-term fixes expose more government-monetized debt, prices of the precious metal will also go higher.
The second reason that gold will shoot to $1,500 in the next 12 months is supply related. Many of the gold fields in South Africa are finding it more difficult and hence more expensive to mine the gold that is deep in the earth. With gold being harder to obtain, the price will be higher due to increased mining costs and inevitably, there will be less supply of gold brought to market due to these expensive mining methods and ongoing difficulty in the mining process.
As demand rises and supply is reduced, you can bet that prices for gold will have nowhere to go but higher than the current $1,100 an ounce.
I favor a quote from Steve Forbes. Forbes says that pursuing additional financial education and the resulting increase in our financial literacy will open our eyes to alternative wealth creating strategies and this will be they key to resolving our financial crisis.
As an example of alternative wealth creating strategies … consider investments in precious metals, water rights, oil, natural gas, potash mines, food commodities, or gold mines … perhaps investments in energy assets that are inherently useful like oil rigs, hydropower, or methanol plants … things hard to build, difficult to replace, and costly to substitute … definitely not financial stocks, definitely not retail stocks, definitely not commercial property.
I trust this article provides a little more insight into the world of the commodity markets and with the raging demand due to the rise in the living standards in many of the world’s emerging markets, there are numerous alternative wealth generating opportunities. This increased demand places commodities in a super-cycle that will likely last another decade. In the commodities world, there are no CEOs on the inside cooking the books nor do you have accounting firms puffing up the profits - you just have prices responding to pure supply and demand. This is why many refer to the commodities markets as the last bastion where there is pure capitalism. It is wise to have exposure to the commodities markets as the world’s economies respond to the emerging markets.
I will continue to introduce alternative wealth creating strategies to consider in future articles and updates at my blog over the next few weeks.
Sunday, February 28, 2010
The World’s Center of Gravity Continues to Tip in Favor of Emerging Economies
Oranges were once expensive luxuries in northern climates.
Today, we take for granted that we can eat apples, oranges, and bananas all year round if we choose. It doesn't matter where you live. We can eat strawberries in the dead of winter. In fact, we routinely enjoy goods that come from places very far from our own doorstep.
Televisions from Taiwan, lettuce from Mexico, shirts from China; goods from faraway places are so common it is easy to forget how recent such miracles of commerce are.
Such miracles of commerce have redrawn the economic map. The emerging markets have "emerged" and big opportunities are emerging in something called the Great Convergence.
In the late 20th century, with the gradual spread of the Industrial Revolution to the developing world, the Western world (ex-Japan) represented 90% of the world's manufacturing output as late as 1953. America's economy alone was nearly half of the world's industrial output.
During this time, the economic gap between China and Western Europe grew very wide when viewed in historic terms. But things changed in the late 20th century. The Great Convergence began. From 1950 on, the world economic growth was quite simply astonishing. We enjoyed a rolling wave of "economic miracles" through the decades. Closed economies opened up and trade expanded.
We can point to the success of postwar Japan and then to the surging tiger economies of East Asia. Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea grew in leaps and bounds. Finally, we saw the opening up of China, India, Russia and Brazil. The once-bottled-up energies of these countries poured out.
Today, we see the handiwork of the Great Convergence taking shape. The distinctions between "emerging markets" and "developed markets" are starting to disappear. Indeed, the terms may already be obsolete.
The belief that companies in the US, Western Europe or Japan are better managed than in emerging markets is also no longer valid. Anyone who has sat through the parade of fraud and corporate malfeasance of recent years in the US will find it hard to argue otherwise.
The list of corporate thieves is much longer in the US and Europe than in the emerging markets. Management teams in the West no longer dominate when it comes to standards of best practices.
Governments in the West are just as bumbling as those of emerging markets. More and more, it is the Western governments that steal too much. Another distinction blurred.
Emerging markets now make up about half of the global economy and not surprisingly, emerging markets now make up 10 of the 20 largest economies in the world. India is now bigger than Germany. Russia is bigger than the UK. Mexico is bigger than Canada. Turkey is bigger than Australia.
In a stock market sense, these places have also grown up. It used to be that emerging markets were not very liquid or very big. It was not that long ago that the IBM shares changing hands in a single day in New York were worth more than all the shares that traded hands in Shanghai or Bombay.
Today's emerging markets are large and liquid. Chinese markets traded more shares than the NYSE; Hong Kong and Korea traded more than Germany; India traded more than France; and Taiwan traded more than Italy, Australia or Canada.
Emerging market companies are also growing faster. In particular, there are wide gaps in the growth rates of sales and profits. The second key distinction worth noting is that of balance sheet strength. Emerging market companies have less debt and cover their debts more comfortably.
All of this is to point out that investors need exposure to emerging markets, or at the very least, they should not shun them for reasons that are no longer valid.
A good way to get exposure to emerging markets is through the back door, so to speak. Invest in companies, wherever they are, that have what these economies need or want, but don't have or can't make.
I favor a quote from Steve Forbes. Forbes says that pursuing additional financial education and the resulting increase in our financial literacy will open our eyes to alternative wealth creating strategies and this will be they key to resolving our financial crisis.
As an example of alternative wealth creating strategies … consider investments in energy assets that are inherently useful like oil rigs, hydropower, or methanol plants … perhaps precious metals, water rights, oil, natural gas, potash mines, food commodities, or gold mines … things hard to build, difficult to replace, and costly to substitute … definitely not financial stocks, definitely not retail stocks, definitely not commercial property.
I trust this article provides a little more insight into the convergence of the developed world and the emerging markets. With the gap between these markets disappearing on many dimensions and with the companies in these regions growing faster, it is wise to have exposure to these markets or at least to invest in companies that have what these economies need.
I will continue to introduce alternative wealth creating strategies to consider in future articles and updates at my blog over the next few weeks.
As a former engineer with General Dynamics and management consultant at Deloitte … I am on a mission to empower individuals by increasing their financial literacy, improve their ability for personal sustainability, and contribute to the program that has a goal of creating 100 Millionaires by 2012.
Until next time, I invite you to:
Meet me at Facebook :
Follow me on Twitter :
Read my Posts :
Watch my Video Channel :
Join me in pursuing financial literacy and alternative business opportunities with multiple income streams at aspenIbiz.
When not traveling for business or pleasure, Mike operates his own Internet Marketing company and consulting firm from his home in the mountains of Colorado.
In closing, if you are a reluctant entrepreneur, a business owner, employed in an 8-5 job, or recently retired, yet still wanting to be plugged-in to the next wave of economic prosperity, you can join me in pursuing the lifestyle you want to live by following the aspenIbiz link provided above.
Today, we take for granted that we can eat apples, oranges, and bananas all year round if we choose. It doesn't matter where you live. We can eat strawberries in the dead of winter. In fact, we routinely enjoy goods that come from places very far from our own doorstep.
Televisions from Taiwan, lettuce from Mexico, shirts from China; goods from faraway places are so common it is easy to forget how recent such miracles of commerce are.
Such miracles of commerce have redrawn the economic map. The emerging markets have "emerged" and big opportunities are emerging in something called the Great Convergence.
In the late 20th century, with the gradual spread of the Industrial Revolution to the developing world, the Western world (ex-Japan) represented 90% of the world's manufacturing output as late as 1953. America's economy alone was nearly half of the world's industrial output.
During this time, the economic gap between China and Western Europe grew very wide when viewed in historic terms. But things changed in the late 20th century. The Great Convergence began. From 1950 on, the world economic growth was quite simply astonishing. We enjoyed a rolling wave of "economic miracles" through the decades. Closed economies opened up and trade expanded.
We can point to the success of postwar Japan and then to the surging tiger economies of East Asia. Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea grew in leaps and bounds. Finally, we saw the opening up of China, India, Russia and Brazil. The once-bottled-up energies of these countries poured out.
Today, we see the handiwork of the Great Convergence taking shape. The distinctions between "emerging markets" and "developed markets" are starting to disappear. Indeed, the terms may already be obsolete.
The belief that companies in the US, Western Europe or Japan are better managed than in emerging markets is also no longer valid. Anyone who has sat through the parade of fraud and corporate malfeasance of recent years in the US will find it hard to argue otherwise.
The list of corporate thieves is much longer in the US and Europe than in the emerging markets. Management teams in the West no longer dominate when it comes to standards of best practices.
Governments in the West are just as bumbling as those of emerging markets. More and more, it is the Western governments that steal too much. Another distinction blurred.
Emerging markets now make up about half of the global economy and not surprisingly, emerging markets now make up 10 of the 20 largest economies in the world. India is now bigger than Germany. Russia is bigger than the UK. Mexico is bigger than Canada. Turkey is bigger than Australia.
In a stock market sense, these places have also grown up. It used to be that emerging markets were not very liquid or very big. It was not that long ago that the IBM shares changing hands in a single day in New York were worth more than all the shares that traded hands in Shanghai or Bombay.
Today's emerging markets are large and liquid. Chinese markets traded more shares than the NYSE; Hong Kong and Korea traded more than Germany; India traded more than France; and Taiwan traded more than Italy, Australia or Canada.
Emerging market companies are also growing faster. In particular, there are wide gaps in the growth rates of sales and profits. The second key distinction worth noting is that of balance sheet strength. Emerging market companies have less debt and cover their debts more comfortably.
All of this is to point out that investors need exposure to emerging markets, or at the very least, they should not shun them for reasons that are no longer valid.
A good way to get exposure to emerging markets is through the back door, so to speak. Invest in companies, wherever they are, that have what these economies need or want, but don't have or can't make.
I favor a quote from Steve Forbes. Forbes says that pursuing additional financial education and the resulting increase in our financial literacy will open our eyes to alternative wealth creating strategies and this will be they key to resolving our financial crisis.
As an example of alternative wealth creating strategies … consider investments in energy assets that are inherently useful like oil rigs, hydropower, or methanol plants … perhaps precious metals, water rights, oil, natural gas, potash mines, food commodities, or gold mines … things hard to build, difficult to replace, and costly to substitute … definitely not financial stocks, definitely not retail stocks, definitely not commercial property.
I trust this article provides a little more insight into the convergence of the developed world and the emerging markets. With the gap between these markets disappearing on many dimensions and with the companies in these regions growing faster, it is wise to have exposure to these markets or at least to invest in companies that have what these economies need.
I will continue to introduce alternative wealth creating strategies to consider in future articles and updates at my blog over the next few weeks.
As a former engineer with General Dynamics and management consultant at Deloitte … I am on a mission to empower individuals by increasing their financial literacy, improve their ability for personal sustainability, and contribute to the program that has a goal of creating 100 Millionaires by 2012.
Until next time, I invite you to:
Meet me at Facebook :
Follow me on Twitter :
Read my Posts :
Watch my Video Channel :
Join me in pursuing financial literacy and alternative business opportunities with multiple income streams at aspenIbiz.
When not traveling for business or pleasure, Mike operates his own Internet Marketing company and consulting firm from his home in the mountains of Colorado.
In closing, if you are a reluctant entrepreneur, a business owner, employed in an 8-5 job, or recently retired, yet still wanting to be plugged-in to the next wave of economic prosperity, you can join me in pursuing the lifestyle you want to live by following the aspenIbiz link provided above.
Friday, February 19, 2010
Is Greece in 2010 Equal to Austria in 1931?
The economic climate in Europe today has worrying parallels with the 1930s, suggests Mike Farrell with aspenIbiz.
It is worth remembering that upheavals in Europe triggered the economic malaise that made the Great Depression “Great”.
Although 1929 is etched into history as being synonymous with the Great Depression, the real tragedy did not get underway until 1931.
The Austrian bank Boden-Kredit-Anstalt was rendered insolvent in the aftermath of the credit boom of the late 1920s. It was “saved” in October 1929 by merging with the stronger Oesterreichische-Credit-Anstalt. An international syndicate, headed by the Rothschild's of Vienna, that included J.P Morgan and Company, injected new capital into the merged entity.
The Austrian Government guaranteed the bad debts of the old bank and the merged entity spent 1930 “muddling through”. But then in May 1931, the Credit-Anstalt bank collapsed. Some blamed the political climate at the time, with the economic union between Germany and Austria (Zollverein) spooking France. Others simply stated that Austria had “consumed its capital” with the result that a banking collapse was inevitable.
Whatever the reason, the collapse of Credit-Anstalt triggered a run on German banks by French and US creditors, leading to the forced closure of the German banking system. London financiers were heavily exposed to German banks, and industry, and were caught out by the banking sector shutdown, which effectively froze their assets.
This in turn caused panic amongst London's foreign creditors and a run on the currency. The pound sterling was overvalued causing England’s major export industries to be uncompetitive. Unions were heavily represented in these industries and refused a proposal to cut wages. Unemployment was high and structure of the whole economy was inefficient.
England had two choices – austerity or devaluation. England chose devaluation because the politics of austerity were too hard.
In the 1930's, contagion went from the periphery to the core in very quick time. Austria folded in May 1931. By September of that year, Britain had gone off the gold standard and devalued the pound sterling.
And so went the contagion that crippled the world economically and provided the impetus for Hitler's rise and decades of economic and political turmoil.
The situation in the global economy today is eerily similar.
Greece, a peripheral European economy, is close to defaulting on its debts.
Being part of the Eurozone and using the Euro, Greece does not have the option to devalue its currency.
And, any default would lead to contagion, as creditors pull funds from other highly indebted countries. The list of targets is well known; Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy & England.
As England found in the early 1930s, Greece may find the politics of the EU austerity plan, necessary to prevent default on its debts, to be too hard.
The only other choice left would be to leave the EU and return to the Drachma, its previous currency, so that it could devalue its debts.
If Greece were to return to the Drachma other countries would likely follow and return to their former currencies … and this would bring down the Euro experiment.
This would also usher in another sharp global slowdown as European banks would be pushed towards insolvency by the associated write-downs on sovereign debt.
I favor a quote from Steve Forbes … Forbes says that pursuing additional financial education and the resulting increase in our financial literacy will open our eyes to alternative wealth creating strategies and this will be they key to resolving our financial crisis.
As an example of alternative wealth creating strategies … consider investments in energy assets that are inherently useful like oil rigs, hydropower, or methanol plants … perhaps precious metals, water rights, oil, natural gas, potash mines, or gold mines … things hard to build, difficult to replace, and costly to substitute … definitely not financial stocks, definitely not retail stocks, definitely not commercial property.
I trust this article provides a little more insight in to the Global Financial Crisis; the economics of the EU, the ECB, and the Euro; and the adverse consequences if you do not have sound money practices and solid public finances.
I will continue to introduce alternative wealth creating strategies to consider in future articles and updates at my blog over the next few weeks.
It is worth remembering that upheavals in Europe triggered the economic malaise that made the Great Depression “Great”.
Although 1929 is etched into history as being synonymous with the Great Depression, the real tragedy did not get underway until 1931.
The Austrian bank Boden-Kredit-Anstalt was rendered insolvent in the aftermath of the credit boom of the late 1920s. It was “saved” in October 1929 by merging with the stronger Oesterreichische-Credit-Anstalt. An international syndicate, headed by the Rothschild's of Vienna, that included J.P Morgan and Company, injected new capital into the merged entity.
The Austrian Government guaranteed the bad debts of the old bank and the merged entity spent 1930 “muddling through”. But then in May 1931, the Credit-Anstalt bank collapsed. Some blamed the political climate at the time, with the economic union between Germany and Austria (Zollverein) spooking France. Others simply stated that Austria had “consumed its capital” with the result that a banking collapse was inevitable.
Whatever the reason, the collapse of Credit-Anstalt triggered a run on German banks by French and US creditors, leading to the forced closure of the German banking system. London financiers were heavily exposed to German banks, and industry, and were caught out by the banking sector shutdown, which effectively froze their assets.
This in turn caused panic amongst London's foreign creditors and a run on the currency. The pound sterling was overvalued causing England’s major export industries to be uncompetitive. Unions were heavily represented in these industries and refused a proposal to cut wages. Unemployment was high and structure of the whole economy was inefficient.
England had two choices – austerity or devaluation. England chose devaluation because the politics of austerity were too hard.
In the 1930's, contagion went from the periphery to the core in very quick time. Austria folded in May 1931. By September of that year, Britain had gone off the gold standard and devalued the pound sterling.
And so went the contagion that crippled the world economically and provided the impetus for Hitler's rise and decades of economic and political turmoil.
The situation in the global economy today is eerily similar.
Greece, a peripheral European economy, is close to defaulting on its debts.
Being part of the Eurozone and using the Euro, Greece does not have the option to devalue its currency.
And, any default would lead to contagion, as creditors pull funds from other highly indebted countries. The list of targets is well known; Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy & England.
As England found in the early 1930s, Greece may find the politics of the EU austerity plan, necessary to prevent default on its debts, to be too hard.
The only other choice left would be to leave the EU and return to the Drachma, its previous currency, so that it could devalue its debts.
If Greece were to return to the Drachma other countries would likely follow and return to their former currencies … and this would bring down the Euro experiment.
This would also usher in another sharp global slowdown as European banks would be pushed towards insolvency by the associated write-downs on sovereign debt.
I favor a quote from Steve Forbes … Forbes says that pursuing additional financial education and the resulting increase in our financial literacy will open our eyes to alternative wealth creating strategies and this will be they key to resolving our financial crisis.
As an example of alternative wealth creating strategies … consider investments in energy assets that are inherently useful like oil rigs, hydropower, or methanol plants … perhaps precious metals, water rights, oil, natural gas, potash mines, or gold mines … things hard to build, difficult to replace, and costly to substitute … definitely not financial stocks, definitely not retail stocks, definitely not commercial property.
I trust this article provides a little more insight in to the Global Financial Crisis; the economics of the EU, the ECB, and the Euro; and the adverse consequences if you do not have sound money practices and solid public finances.
I will continue to introduce alternative wealth creating strategies to consider in future articles and updates at my blog over the next few weeks.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
The Law of the Ladder ... explained by Mike Farrell aspenIbiz
While being first in the mind of your lead or customer should be your primary objective, the battle is not lost if you fail in this endeavor.
All products are not created equal so there is a hierarchy in the mind that customers use in making decisions.
For each category, there is a product ladder in the mind of the customer. On each rung is a brand name.
Take a look at the car rental category. Hertz got into the mind first and wound up on the top rung. Avis got in second and National got in third.
Your marketing strategy should depend on how soon you got in the mind of your customer and which rung you occupy on the ladder; of course the higher the better.
For many years Avis was on the 2nd rung of the ladder and advertised they had the finest in rent cars. Many renters wondered how Avis could have the finest rent car service and not be on the top rung of the ladder.
Avis then did what you have to do to make progress inside the mind of the customer. They acknowledged their position on the ladder and created a campaign where they said, “ … go with us! We try harder.” And, Avis then started making a lot of money.
Many marketing people have misread the Avis campaigns. They assume the company was successful because it tried harder and therefore had better service. But that wasn’t it at all. Avis was more successful because of how and where it positioned itself compared to Hertz on the ladder.
The mind is selective. Customers use the ladders in their mind in deciding which information to accept and which information to reject. In general, a mind accepts only new data that is consistent with the product ladder and where the brand is on the ladder … everything else is ignored.
As an Internet Marketing professional, you need to determine how many rungs there are on the product ladder in your lead’s mind and on which rung are you likely to be perceived.
It depends on whether the product you are offering is a product used every day (like beverages, toothpaste, or ceral, referred to as high-interest products) or purchased infrequently (like travel packages, furniture, or wealth management, referred to as low-interest products).
If your product is a high-interest product, there are many rungs on the product ladder. If your product is low-interest product, there are fewer rungs on the ladder. And, there is a relationship between market share and your position on the ladder in your customer’s mind. You tend to have twice the market share of the brand below you and half the market share of the brand above you.
Sometimes your own ladder or category is too small. It might be better to be a small fish in a big pond than to be a big fish in a small pond. In other words it is sometimes better to be No 3 on a big ladder than No 1 on a small ladder.
Let’s look at how 7-Up used this law to its advantage by being a smaller fish in a bigger pond.
On the lemon-lime soda ladder, 7-Up was on the top rung and Sprite was on the 2nd rung. However, in the beverage industry, the cola market is larger and therefore the ladder had more rungs. So 7-Up positioned itself in the mind of its customers with a marketing campaign called “The Uncola” and climbed the cola ladder and increased its sales.
Before you start any marketing program, you need to determine if your product is a high-interest or low-interest product; whether there are many or few rungs; and on which rung of the product ladder are you likely to be positioned in the mind of the customer. You then make sure your campaign deals realistically with your position on the ladder.
Many Internet Marketing entrepreneurs are using techniques and tools like mind-mapping, keyword research, Attraction Marketing Formula, Magnetic Sponsoring, and MindMeister to conduct the market research and utilize the Law of the Ladder. They then use the power of brand You Inc, and hypnotic writing skills in their marketing campaigns, to deal realistically with the position of their brand on the product ladder in the mind of their leads and customers. The goals is to not emphasize why their offering is better, feature and function-wise, over a competitor’s but to develop a message that is recognized, accepted, and agreed to so that it will seduce and persuade a customer that what is offered will work for them.
Marketing is not a battle of products. It is all about the strategy you use depending on which rung your brand occupies on the product ladder.
You can find out more about Internet Marketing and home-based businesses by reading updates that will be posted at my blog over the next few weeks.
As a former engineer with General Dynamics and management consultant at Deloitte … I am on a mission to empower individuals by increasing their financial literacy, improve their ability for personal sustainability, and contribute to the program that has a goal of creating 100 Millionaires by 2012.
Until next time, I invite you to:
Meet me at Facebook :
Follow me on Twitter :
Read my Posts :
Watch my Video Channel :
Join me in pursuing financial literacy and alternative business opportunities with multiple income streams at aspenIbiz.
When not traveling for business or pleasure, Mike operates his own Internet Marketing company and consulting firm from his home in the mountains of Colorado.
In closing, if you are a reluctant entrepreneur, a business owner, employed in an 8-5 job, or recently retired, yet still wanting to be plugged-in to the next wave of economic prosperity, you can join me in pursuing the lifestyle you want to live by following the aspenIbiz link provided above.
All products are not created equal so there is a hierarchy in the mind that customers use in making decisions.
For each category, there is a product ladder in the mind of the customer. On each rung is a brand name.
Take a look at the car rental category. Hertz got into the mind first and wound up on the top rung. Avis got in second and National got in third.
Your marketing strategy should depend on how soon you got in the mind of your customer and which rung you occupy on the ladder; of course the higher the better.
For many years Avis was on the 2nd rung of the ladder and advertised they had the finest in rent cars. Many renters wondered how Avis could have the finest rent car service and not be on the top rung of the ladder.
Avis then did what you have to do to make progress inside the mind of the customer. They acknowledged their position on the ladder and created a campaign where they said, “ … go with us! We try harder.” And, Avis then started making a lot of money.
Many marketing people have misread the Avis campaigns. They assume the company was successful because it tried harder and therefore had better service. But that wasn’t it at all. Avis was more successful because of how and where it positioned itself compared to Hertz on the ladder.
The mind is selective. Customers use the ladders in their mind in deciding which information to accept and which information to reject. In general, a mind accepts only new data that is consistent with the product ladder and where the brand is on the ladder … everything else is ignored.
As an Internet Marketing professional, you need to determine how many rungs there are on the product ladder in your lead’s mind and on which rung are you likely to be perceived.
It depends on whether the product you are offering is a product used every day (like beverages, toothpaste, or ceral, referred to as high-interest products) or purchased infrequently (like travel packages, furniture, or wealth management, referred to as low-interest products).
If your product is a high-interest product, there are many rungs on the product ladder. If your product is low-interest product, there are fewer rungs on the ladder. And, there is a relationship between market share and your position on the ladder in your customer’s mind. You tend to have twice the market share of the brand below you and half the market share of the brand above you.
Sometimes your own ladder or category is too small. It might be better to be a small fish in a big pond than to be a big fish in a small pond. In other words it is sometimes better to be No 3 on a big ladder than No 1 on a small ladder.
Let’s look at how 7-Up used this law to its advantage by being a smaller fish in a bigger pond.
On the lemon-lime soda ladder, 7-Up was on the top rung and Sprite was on the 2nd rung. However, in the beverage industry, the cola market is larger and therefore the ladder had more rungs. So 7-Up positioned itself in the mind of its customers with a marketing campaign called “The Uncola” and climbed the cola ladder and increased its sales.
Before you start any marketing program, you need to determine if your product is a high-interest or low-interest product; whether there are many or few rungs; and on which rung of the product ladder are you likely to be positioned in the mind of the customer. You then make sure your campaign deals realistically with your position on the ladder.
Many Internet Marketing entrepreneurs are using techniques and tools like mind-mapping, keyword research, Attraction Marketing Formula, Magnetic Sponsoring, and MindMeister to conduct the market research and utilize the Law of the Ladder. They then use the power of brand You Inc, and hypnotic writing skills in their marketing campaigns, to deal realistically with the position of their brand on the product ladder in the mind of their leads and customers. The goals is to not emphasize why their offering is better, feature and function-wise, over a competitor’s but to develop a message that is recognized, accepted, and agreed to so that it will seduce and persuade a customer that what is offered will work for them.
Marketing is not a battle of products. It is all about the strategy you use depending on which rung your brand occupies on the product ladder.
You can find out more about Internet Marketing and home-based businesses by reading updates that will be posted at my blog over the next few weeks.
As a former engineer with General Dynamics and management consultant at Deloitte … I am on a mission to empower individuals by increasing their financial literacy, improve their ability for personal sustainability, and contribute to the program that has a goal of creating 100 Millionaires by 2012.
Until next time, I invite you to:
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Join me in pursuing financial literacy and alternative business opportunities with multiple income streams at aspenIbiz.
When not traveling for business or pleasure, Mike operates his own Internet Marketing company and consulting firm from his home in the mountains of Colorado.
In closing, if you are a reluctant entrepreneur, a business owner, employed in an 8-5 job, or recently retired, yet still wanting to be plugged-in to the next wave of economic prosperity, you can join me in pursuing the lifestyle you want to live by following the aspenIbiz link provided above.
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